Apologies for inserting the word “Left”. It’s how they or the Commentariat describe themselves.
French Leader, Hollande took six months to betray his voters and supporters. At least Mitterand tried first before succumbing to the New World Order after two years.
The Spanish equivalent in Catalonia are set to fall apart in the 25-N elections, far worse than their disastrous results in 2010.
Doesn’t look like any way back in Portugal.
As for PASOK, once the all-powerful juggernaut – it is now down to 7% and fast sinking into oblivion.
Hollande is losing the Green support – who have obviously learnt from the Irish experience – despite Danny Cohn Bendit (Danny le bleu)’s best efforts to steer the Greens closer to the Barroso vision of an institutionally right-wing Europe.
It is clear that Le Gauche will rise, as well as the Greens in France at the expensive of Hollande.
The German SPD on 29% are neck and neck with Merkel’s alliance as the German Greens add their 14%.
If it goes to the wire, and the SPD refuse to link up with Die Linke (Left), then the strongest economy in the Continent will let the Pirates decide who rule!
New or One Nation Labour hope their opinion polls are real and expect to coast back to power in 2014-15.
They might want to put the corks back in the champagne bottles.
Their 11% lead is entirely accounted for by the 11% of the Far Right UKIP. Those UKIP supporters will retreat back to the Tories in the absurd first past the post electoral system.
Therefore, it boils down to whether New Labour can persuade the Lib Dems to dump Clegg for Cable and form a Lib-Lab alliance (reminiscent of the 1970s).
The joker in the pack is Alex Salmond and his referendum in the autumn of 2014.
At the moment, the fizz has gone out of the independence movement – languishing at 30%.
However, the more Cameron and Osbourne appear in Scotland in 2013 and 2014, and the more Scottish Labour shift to the Right (to help Miliband-Balls in their quest for the Tory vote in Southern England), the more the Scottish Nationalists will fancy their chances of causing an upset hoping the 16-17 year olds catch the radical wave.
The Netherlands defied expectations and the Centre-Left did much better than expected.
Italy: I am not sure what could happen in spring 2013.
So all in all, we can say that the Southern European Centre Left is in decline.
In France, they look to follow in the medium term.
Further North, things look brighter for the Centre Left.
However, the margin is tight and a German defeat in October 2013 for the SPD could be decisive.