Western Europe learns about fragmentation. No more will states be created and destroyed according to whims of ambitious diplomats in London, Paris or Madrid playing God.
We all know how Belgium is papering over the cracks, but for how long?
Increasingly, England is giving up on the Union as Scotland flexes its right to independence. Matter of time. Who mentions Northern Ireland in England any more? It’s over.
Madrid is going the same way but faster. It isn’t going to hold on to the Basque country nor will it do so in Catalonia. The writing is on the wall.
France is seemingly untouched. We shall see.
Six decades of ‘fixing Germany’ and then taking over Eastern Europe and the Ukraine…. it’s over (but they don’t want to recognise it).
Italy? Tougher one to call, not least because of nasty Umberto Bossi. But Cavour and Garibaldi will be rolling in their graves.
Economics is key. And it’s not looking pretty.
Carbon in the form of oil and gas drives geo-politics more than most.
What are the chances of a Free Baluchistan later this decade?
The on-off rebellion could have wings now that the Americans smell an opportunity to:
a) break up the artificial state of Pakistan
b) grab the immense mineral riches of Baluchistan (note how Sky, BBC, Al J and Fox don’t talk about this
c) eat into Persia (Iran) by sowing the seeds of rebellion among the Baluchis in modern Iran
Dismemberment of states is the order of the day (rather decade) to redraw the imperial map. After all, much of what we see is really the result of imperialist diplomats carving out territories and leaving political timebombs behind…
I took a ‘sabbatical’ for the best part of a year, doing other things. Now, I am in the mood to return to putting pen to paper (or this finger to keyboard or even talking to Dragon).
Some of the things I am thinking about is how politics to the left of the spectrum reacts to the prevailing forces.
Specifically, is the universalist view of Green politics out of touch with the driving force today which is Nationalism?
In times of crisis, especially in Europe, which is in the driving seat? Green politics or Nationalist politics.
And how can Greens and Left-leaning people link up with the better part of Nationalism, akin to the National Liberation movements in what used to be called the Third World and can be seen in Europe today in the Basque country, Catalonia, Wales and Scotland…. and many places beyond?
Speak to you soon