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Day April 23, 2011

Berlin moves closer to Moscow while London dreams on

In our Washington-London centric world, we really seem to think that the world revolves around us. After 30 years of free market capitalism ran aground on the rocks of Lehman Brothers, sub-prime mortgage bubble & deficits run up by permanent war…… we still cling on to the past by printing money & bombing poor countries.

The North African war has brought Berlin and Moscow closer. They disapprove. Wait till Merkel loses more state elections and the big one in 2013…
The Japanese earthquake and the debacle at Fukushima-Daiichi has killed off nuclear growth in Germany and much of Europe. NIMBY will ensure no new plants.
Germany may be the solar king of Europe with its capital in Stuttgart (site of the Green Party’s recent triumph and home to solar companies) but it will replace atomic fusion with more natural gas from Moscow.
The Iraq War and Georgia Wars had much to do with conquering real estate gushing with gas. The game is to build pipelines from northern (Kurdish) Iraq and also from the Caspian and send gas to central and Western Europe…. an ex-German Green Leader, Joshska Fisher is paid for his consultancy help for this….
Meanwhile, another German, ex-Chancellor of the SPD works for another pipeline. To ignore western projects and instead pipe in Russian gas.

It is clear that the Russians will win. It will be their revenge for Afghanistan. GAZPROM will be THE energy company in EurAsia.
Berlin and Moscow will become strategic allies. The former selling machine tools and high technology capital goods to re-industrialise Russia and save it from further decline. The latter will become the raw material supplier for Germany as it moves up the value chain ever higher to stay ahead of the Chinese.
The Chinese growth miracle is engineered in Germany with its high technology goods.

London thinks it can remain the hedge fund capital for several decades more. Hubris.
A one trick pony relying on finance and royalty fueled tourism cannot survive in this hyper-competitive world.
The English elite will savour the little war in North Africa and the eyes of the world on its non-event called the Royal Wedding…… it never learnt from Suez 1956 and it cannot give up on imperialism…

The ultimate nightmare would be if Berlin moved closer to Moscow and then towards Beijing…. that will not happen until the next generation of Chinese leaders replace Hu Jintao and Wen…. but the writing is on the Wall ……

Think what the world looked like in 1911 and how it was transformed by 1921… .. this time we will not need a global conflagaration to kill off old empires and ideas….

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They’re not exactly Rommel or Montgomery

The ongoing war in Libya looks like a comedy of errors, once we ignore the deaths and injuries.

There seemed to be more technology on the ground when Erwin Rommel and the Afrika Korps were running rings round numerically superior British Desert Rats until the Alamein, than shown by that lunatic Gaddafi and the Western backed ragtag of pseudo-Taliban and Facebook inspired ‘guerillas’.

Even US & NATO 21st century bombers, fighters and drones don’t seem to have turned the battle. though they prevented a rout of the secessionists by Gaddafi.

What we have now is stalemate and partition. Anyone care about Iraq? Or Afghanistan/Pakistan?

Obama escalates the war in Afghanistan and the ‘progressive Left’ still love him. Now Obama starts a war in Africa¬† against the wishes of the African Union. So much for a black President being different.

And the progressive Left in London ‘agonised’ over whether to send in the bombers to Libya …. in the end, not a lot has changed….. for all the talk about a rising Asia and a changing world, both the Right and Left in Western Europe still cannot let go dictating the affairs of the world.

There is no strategic need for the UK or France to be embroiled in a war. They are sending ‘advisers’… just like in Vietnam…… they will then send troops to basically carve out a state in Cyrenaica on the borders of Egypt….. all those revolutionaries in Cairo & Alexandria will soon have NATO armies to its West, a corrupt US-vassal Egyptian Army in the middle and the Israeli Army & bombers to the East…….

….. Obama, Cameron & Sarkozy are pale imitations of the war leaders they aspire to be… no Roosevelt, Churchill or De Gaulle here then…..

The Germans have signalled their disapproval of this war…. They are at one with the Russians and the Turks…. this is the most significant realignment of this episode……. London & Paris will never want Berlin to link arms with Moscow or Ankara……. their stupid escapade in Libya has helped that speed up……..

Meanwhile, the low intensity, low capability war continues…… We live in an age of Permanent War……